The problem with a forum on the risks of technology is that while the risks of not using some technology, e.g. computers, are real, it takes imagination to think of them. A further problem with newspaper, magazine and TV discussion of technology is that journalists and free-lance writers tend to run in intellectual mobs. This biases the discussion for everyone, especially when the same journalists read each others writings and call it public opinion. Here are some illustrations. 1. Suppose some organization manages to delay interconnecting police data systems on some specious civil liberty grounds. Suppose some wanted murderer is stopped for a traffic offense but not arrested, because he is wanted in a jurisdiction not connected to the computer system used by the police officer. He later kills several more people. The non-use of computers will not be considered as a cause, and no-one will sue the police for not interconnecting the computers - nor will anyone sue the ACLU. The connection will not even be mentioned in the news stories. 2. No relative of someone killed on U.S. 101 during the 10 years the Sierra Club delayed making it a freeway sued the Sierra Club. 3. No non-smoker who dies of lung cancer in an area newly polluted by wood smoke will sue the makers of "Split wood not atoms" bumper stickers. *** Based on past experience, I expect this question to be ignored, but here's one for the risk-of-computers collectors. Is a risk-of-computers organization that successfully sues to delay a use of computers either MORALLY or LEGALLY LIABLE if the delay causes someone's death? Is there any moral or legal requirement that such an organization prove that they have formally investigated whether their lawsuit will result in killing people? As the above examples indicate, the present legal situation and the present publicity situation are entirely unsymmetric. *** Here's another issue of the social responsibility of computer professionals that has been ignored every time I have raised it. The harm caused by tape-to-tape batch processing as opposed to on-line systems. From the earliest days of commercial computing people have complained about seemingly uncorrectable errors in their bills. The writers don't know enough to connect this with the use of tape-to-tape batch processing. Under such a system when a customer complains, the person who takes the complaint fills out a form. A key puncher punches the form on a card. At the next file-update, this card goes to tape, and a tape-to-tape operation makes the correction. If there is any error in the form or in the key punching, the correction is rejected, and the customer gets the wrong bill again. On-line systems permit the person who takes the complaint to make the correction immediately. Any errors in making the correction show up immediately, and the person can keep trying until he gets it right or ask for help from a supervisor. Not only is the customer better off, but the complaint-taker has a less frustrating job. My own experience with the difference occurred in 1979 when my wallet was stolen, and I had to tell American Express and Visa. American Express had an on-line system, and the person who took the call was even able to give me a new card number on the spot. The Visa complaint-taker had to look it up on a micro-fiche file and call back, and still they got it wrong. They gave me a new account number without cancelling the old one. Perhaps this issue is moot now, but I suspect there are still many tape-to-tape systems or systems using modern equipment that still emulate the old systems. Shouldn't computer professionals who pretend to social responsibility take an interest in an area where their knowledge might actually be relevant? Once upon a time, beginning perhaps in the middle nineteenth century, scientific organizations were active in pressuring government and business to use new technology capable of reducing risk and promoting the general welfare. I have in mind the campaigns for safe water supplies and proper sewage disposal. Here's a new one that involves computer technology. Theft can be reduced by introducing the notion of registered property. When you buy a television, say, you have the option of buying a registered model, and the fact that it is registered is stamped on it. Whenever someone buys a piece of used registered property he has the obligation of telephoning the registry to check whether the property with that serial number has been reported stolen and recording his ownership. Repairmen are also obliged to telephone either by voice or by keyboard. Unfortunately, too many computer people imagine their social responsibility to consist solely of imagining risks.
To: Neumann@SRI-CSL.ARPA I've received a number of responses to the remark I made that I would not support the SDI program even if I thought it could be made to work. I have the feeling that, if I try to respond globally, a full blown debate may ensue. That I really don't want to conduct with the bboard as the medium of expression. Nevertheless, I feel obligated to say just a few words in an attempt to clarify some ideas that have probably been misunderstood. I said that my attitude derives from what I called a "quasi pacifist" position. One writer thought that pacifists are opposed to all forms of self defense. Actually pacifists are often the first to come to the defense of justice being trampled. But the form of their resistance to wrongs is non-violent. It ought also not to be confused with "passive" resistance - Gandhi often pointed out, usually by his own example, that there is nothing passive about non-violent resistance. My use of the term "quasi pacifist" also elicited comment: Am or am I not a pacifist? Let me say I strive to become a pacifist, to grow up to be one. One isn't an adult by virtue of merely wishing or claiming to be one. Just so with being a pacifist. I am still far from the goal. People apparently believe that, were the SDI technically feasible there could be no reasonable objections to its development and deployment. Wouldn't it be comforting if every region, every city and village in America had, so to speak, an invisible shield over it which guarded against the invasion of hostile missiles, they ask. Speaking entirely in practical terms, I would remind them that every year tons (perhaps kilotons) of marijuana are smuggled past the U.S. Coastguard and the custom service. Now that technical progress allows the construction of nuclear "devices" smaller than a moderately sized overnight bag, a determined enemy could destroy American cities without "delivering" war heads by air mail at all ! If I were responsible for national security, I would worry if, a few days before the President's traditional State of the Union message, usually delivered to the assembled leadership of all three branches of our government, some foreign embassy evacuated all its personel. Perhaps a nuclear device of moderate size had made its way to Washington and is about to decapitate the government. We can no more bring peace to this globe by putting impenetrable domes over nations than we can halt the violence in our cities by providing everyone with bulletproof clothing. Human problems transcend technical problems and their solutions. But suppose we could solve the smuggled bomb problem. I would still oppose SDI. SDI is an attempt at a technological solution to problems which have their roots in and are social, political, economic, cultural, in other words, human problems. It is an attempt to find solutions under the the light provided by technology when in fact we know them to reside only in the human spirit. That is what guarantees the failure of SDI more surely than its complexity or the impossibility of its being tested. Beyond all that is the fact that we live in a world of finite resources. The scarcest resource of all is human talent and creativity. The military already commands the time and energy of most American scientists and engineers. Money is another scarce resource on which the military has first call. On the other hand, social services of all kinds are being cut back. Meanwhile the country faces social problems of horrendous dimensions: There is massive, deep poverty in the land. Adequate health care is beyond the reach of millions of citizens and ruinously expensive for many more millions. The schools are spewing out "a rising tide of mediocrity" while a huge fraction of our youth is functionally illiterate. The conditions that brought on the riots in American cities, for example in Watts, have never been attended to - they silently tick away, time bombs waiting to go off. When resources are limited they must be distributed on the basis of a widely based consensus on priorities. To silently consent to lowering still further the priorities our society assigns to the people's health and education in favor of spending the billions of dollars required above and beyond the already huge military budget for only the first stages of SDI, is, it seems to me, to condone the continuing impoverishment and militarization of not only America, but of the whole world. Ever more scientists and engineers will be occupied with military work. Ever more industrial workers of many different kinds will be enmeshed in the militarized sectors of society by, for example, being required to have military security clearances. There is a danger that, in the process of the growing militarization of society, a certain threshold, hard to define but terribly real, will be crossed and that, once crossed, there will be no ready road back to a civilian society. Joseph Weizenbaum
[Peter, I have also posted this to SOFT-ENG. If you think the duplication is reasonable, please include it in RISKS as well. — mjm] I've been thinking about the SDI system and how it will be implemented. Specifically, I've been looking at a system composed of N independent platforms, each of which performs its own detection, decision making, and response. Given this type of system, we can reach a few conclusions about the reliability of the whole system, based on the reliability of a single platform. I've crunched a few numbers: nothing profound, just some basic statistics. Definitions: 1. A "false positive" is an attack response by a platform when such a response is not justified. 2. A "false negative" is failure of a platform to attack when an attack response is justified. Let's look at the false positive case first. How likely is the system to experience a false positive, based on the probability for each platform? N: 50 100 200 500 1000 2000 Pp: +------------------------------------------------------------------ 1.000E-12 | 5.000E-11 1.000E-10 2.000E-10 5.000E-10 1.000E-09 2.000E-09 1.000E-11 | 5.000E-10 1.000E-09 2.000E-09 5.000E-09 1.000E-08 2.000E-08 1.000E-10 | 5.000E-09 1.000E-08 2.000E-08 5.000E-08 1.000E-07 2.000E-07 1.000E-09 | 5.000E-08 1.000E-07 2.000E-07 5.000E-07 1.000E-06 2.000E-06 1.000E-08 | 5.000E-07 1.000E-06 2.000E-06 5.000E-06 1.000E-05 2.000E-05 1.000E-07 | 5.000E-06 1.000E-05 2.000E-05 5.000E-05 1.000E-04 2.000E-04 1.000E-06 | 5.000E-05 1.000E-04 2.000E-04 4.999E-04 9.995E-04 1.998E-03 1.000E-05 | 4.999E-04 9.995E-04 1.998E-03 4.988E-03 9.950E-03 1.980E-02 1.000E-04 | 4.988E-03 9.951E-03 1.980E-02 4.877E-02 9.517E-02 1.813E-01 1.000E-03 | 4.879E-02 9.521E-02 1.814E-01 3.936E-01 6.323E-01 8.648E-01 Pp is the probability that a given weapons platform will experience a false positive. N is the number of platforms in the system. The entries in the table give the probability that a false positive will occur on at least one platform (and one may be enough to start a war.) For example, if there are 1000 platforms, and each one has a one-millionth (1.000E-6) probability of experiencing a false positive, then the cumulative probability that some platform will do so is 9.995E-4, or .09995%. Looking at the table, I'd say the numbers in the lower right corner are rather disquieting, to say the least. Now let's look at the false negative case. The table is structured a little differently here. In the false positive case, a single failure is disastrous; in the false negative case, it's not. The probability of a false negative should be many orders higher than that of a false positive, simply because the protections against a false positive will actually enhance the chances of a false negative. This table deals with a 100-platform system (that being the most my binomial coefficient routine can handle). Pn: .001 .01 .05 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 N: +--------------------------------------------------------------- 30 | 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 35 | 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 0.9991 40 | 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 0.9824 45 | 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 0.9991 0.8644 50 | 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 0.9832 0.5398 55 | 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 0.9995 0.8689 0.1841 60 | 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 0.9875 0.5433 0.0284 65 | 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 0.9999 0.8839 0.1795 0.0018 70 | 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 0.9939 0.5491 0.0248 0.0000 75 | 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 0.9125 0.1631 0.0012 0.0000 80 | 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 0.9992 0.5595 0.0165 0.0000 0.0000 85 | 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 0.9601 0.1285 0.0004 0.0000 0.0000 90 | 1.0000 1.0000 0.9885 0.5832 0.0057 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 95 | 1.0000 0.9995 0.6160 0.0576 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 100 | 0.9048 0.3660 0.0059 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 Pn is the probability that a given platform will experience a false negative. N is the minimum number of platforms (out of 100) which respond correctly. The table entries give the probability that at least N platforms respond correctly. For example, if the probability of a given platform experiencing a false negative is 0.1 (10%), then the probability is 99.92% that at least 80 out of 100 platforms respond correctly, 58.32% that at least 90 respond correctly, and so on. Some of the Pn's and Pp's may strike you as much too high. I don't think so. The two tables were constructed on the simplifying assumption that Pn and Pp are constants; actually, they are reliability functions. The longer a platform is in service, the more likely it is to malfunction. If we assume that the time-to-failure rate of a platform is some form of Weibull distribution [a*B*t**(B-1) * e**(-a*t**B)], then the reliability function is given by Z(t) = a*B*t**(B-1). I did not use this in constructing the tables in order to keep from drowning in figures, and because I don't really know how to choose a, B, and unit t, until we get a history of actual performance (and by then it may be too late...) Suggestions are welcome. Martin Moore (firstname.lastname@example.org)
To: RISKS@SRI-CSLA.ARPA RE: RISKS contribution from friend@nrl-csr (Al Friend, Space and Naval Warfare Systems Command); RISKS-1.6 The 1981 FDA study cited by Friend probably contains much useful (albeit rather "soothing") information about VDT *radiation* hazards (ionizing, RF, and acoustic). One should observe carefully, however, that the quoted material fails to mention other kinds of hazards, nor does its title reflect any others. One should, therefore, not assume that *radiation* hazards are the whole story for VDTs. I would have felt more relieved at the data presented had it included some other, more obvious, risk factors such as visual effects. In particular, recent studies show that at least two visual effects may be quite important as factors producing severe eye fatigue. The first, visual flicker (resulting from the screen refresh rate), is probably well understood (from extensive psychovisual experimentation in connection with TV viewing). The higher screen refresh rates used on some computer graphic displays seem to minimize this problem. However, 60 fields/sec (50, in Europe) is standard for most personal computers. [Flicker depends on many factors: rate, ambient light, screen contrast, brightness, subject motion, color, etc. More seems to be known about the conditions for minimal *perceptible* flicker than about those that can produce visual fatigue, eyestrain, headaches, etc. Also, there is a fairly large variation among different subjects even for minimal perceptible flicker, and flicker may be noticeable (and annoying) in the "fringe visual field" (off to the side) even when it is not detectable for the object directly ahead.] The second factor is connected with the fact that the human eye is not chromatically corrected, i.e., its focal accommodation is different for different colored objects. The result is that when the eye is focused correctly on a blue object, a nearby red object will be slightly out of focus. One study  indicates that the discrepancy is about 0.5 diopters (for a viewing distance of 50 cm). According to one report I've seen (sorry, I can't find the reference!), this means that in a multicolored display the eye will automatically be making rapid focus adjustments in scanning the screen. Even worse, the effect can also exist in some monochrome displays, i.e., where the character color (white, say) is achieved by a mixture of two differently colored phosphors separated substantially in wavelength. In the latter situation it appears that (at least for some people) the eye may undergo extremely rapid focus oscillations in the futile attempt to bring both component colors into focus. Quite understandably this may result in severe eye fatigue, even though the subject may not be consciously aware of what is happening. This occurs mostly when the two phosphors radiate nearly pure spectral lines. Single-phosphor displays and those where the component pure colors are close enough in wavelength seem not be prone to this disturbing effect. I recall seeing the statement that AMBER displays are not objectionable for this reason, and that one nation (Sweden or West Germany, I think) has specified amber displays for extended-time industrial use. It seems to me that the chromatic refocusing effect is probably the more serious of the two cited, especially on high resolution displays. The fact that it seems not to have been noticed on conventional (analog) color TV displays may be accounted for by their relatively poor resolution (low bandwidth). Thus, the brain expects to see a sharper image on a high-resolution (RGB) display than on a conventional TV (where everything--especially the reds and oranges--is pretty blurred anyway). In summary, in concentrating on the "serious" potential hazards of X-rays, etc., from VDTs, we should not thereby overlook the more obvious factors concerned with the visual process itself. 1. G.M. Murch, "Good color graphics are a lot more than another pretty display," Industrial Research and Development, pp. 105-108 (November 1983). Bernie Elspas [Material inside [...] may be deleted at editor's option. Bernie] [The editor decided to leave it in. PGN]
I would like to see a discussion by the members of this list of the degree to which computer users, whether individuals or organizations, are vulnerable to worms and Trojan Horses. These terms, which first appeared in this list in #3, refer to programs designed to inflict some form of unpleasantness on the user, up to and including the destruction of the system. Typically they erase all files in reach. I have read discussion, in Dvorak's column in *Infoworld*, of the possibility that such programs might modify the operating system as well such that when the unfortunate user tries to restore the destroyed files from backup disks, those too would be erased. One can also imagine, vaguely, programs that are insidious rather than calamitious, that introduce certain categories of error, perhaps when strings of numbers are recognized. These might be able to do even more damage over the long run. There are two issues with these programs. The first is what they might do, once resident. The second is the nature of the vector, to borrow a medical term. Worms can be introduced directly, by 'crackers', or surreptiously, by hiding them inside a legitimate program and waiting for an unsuspecting user to run that program on his system, thus activating the 'Trojan Horse'. The article cited in #3 had to do with a program camouflaged as a disk directory that was circulated on the download BBSs. One could imagine a spy novel devoted to the theme: perhaps it was the KGB, and not Ben Rosen, who provided the money to launch Lotus. Inside every copy of 1-2-3 and Symphony is a worm which, every time it is run, checks the system clock to see if it was later than, say, October 1, 1985. On that date the commercial and industrial memory of the United States dies. The CIA suspects something is up, but they don't know what. Unfortunately the director of the team working on the problem is a KGB mole. Fortunately there is this beautiful and brilliant female computer genius ... Anyway, I have a specific question: can anyone imagine a circumstance in which a program appended to a piece of text in a system could get hold of the processor? It would appear not, which is a good thing, because if such circumstances did exist, then it would become possible to spread worms by pigyybacking them on a telecommunicated piece of text. The right piece of text — some specialized newsletter, or even a crazily attractive offer from a 'Computer Mall'-- might find itself copied into thousands of systems. But I am not a technical person, and cannot establish to my satisfaction that such an eventuality is truly impossible. Is it?
To: SIDNEY.G.HAPGOOD%MIT-OZ@MIT-MC.ARPA Cc: RISKS@SRI-CSLA.ARPA Absolutely not. It is quite possible. However, I can assure you that this issue does not now include a virus — although some message systems tend to permit you to edit a message before resending it, with no indication that it has been altered. Thus, even in the presence of all of those routing headers, you can never be sure you really have picked up or been forwarded the original message. The example of squirreled control characters and escape characters that do not print but cause all sorts of wonderful actions was popular several years ago, and provides a very simple example of how a message can have horrible side-effects when it is read. Worms, viruses, and Trojan horses from their technical aspects are probably best discussed elsewhere — e.g., in SECURITY@RUTGERS. (See also Fred Cohen's paper in the 7th DoD/NBS Computer Security Conference in 1984.) From the RISKS point of view, they are definitely important to this forum -- and they present a very serious risk to the public. PGN]
To: mab@RIACS.ARPA cc: risks@SRI-CSL.ARPA Did the NWS say that (ie, even if the buoy had been alive at the time, they could not have predicted the storm) in testimony, or after the verdict? If after the verdict, no comment. I believe it was during testimony, but I am not certain. But if as testimony, Herb, the jury (or judge) apparently didn't believe the NWS testimony. If you believe the NWS claim, the headline was correct, but it's unfair to say the court ruled that way when it explicitly based its ruling on negligence. But it is not clear that the court understands that the significance of "missing data" is context-dependent. Sometimes it matters, and sometimes it doesn't. This is a point that non-scientists have a very hard time understanding. I am not defending the NWS; they should have repaired the buoy. But given limited resources, how are they to set priorities in deciding what to repair first? The implications of the verdict are to me frightening, placing NWS and all other similar organizations in a double bind: all equipment must be functional even when they don't have sufficient dollars to keep it that way.
Cc: risks@SRI-CSL.ARPA Subject: Re: The Case of the Broken Buoy But it is not clear that the court understands that the significance of "missing data" is context-dependent. Sometimes it matters, and sometimes it doesn't. This is a point that non-scientists have a very hard time understanding. At this point I'm going to bow out of the discussion, since I am not familiar enough with the decision to know if the court understood that point. The NWS certainly should have made its position very clear, so the court could make an informed decision (about whether or not negligence was involved.)
To: RISKS@MIT-MC.ARPA Date: Wed, 4 Sep 85 14:41:38 EDT From: Dan_Bower%RPI-MTS.Mailnet@MIT-MULTICS.ARPA Subject: Hot rodding you AT In a recent issue of PC Magazine, Peter Norton espoused the idea of substituting a faster clock chip to enhance performance. Now, according to the folk on the Info-IBM PC digest, this may create problems. An off the shelf PC AT is composed of components guaranteed to work to IBM spec, e.g. 6 Mhz. If I increase the clock rate, then the whole rest of the machine has to be up to snuff. If not, a part dies and I pay a nasty repair bill. Now if I took Mr. Norton's word as gospel, swapped chips and set my PC AT on fire, would he be liable? How about the publisher? I doubt this would break anything. The machine would simply cease working above a certain speed, and resume working below that speed. I know of a couple people who have done this on APPLE computers, tried various speeds so as to run their machine at the highest speed it will go. Also, I once did the same thing with a synchronous link, i.e. hooked up an external clock and cranked it up to the highest speed it would work reliably at. Also, I have done this with my Hayes modem. The standard duration for touchtone pulses is 70 ms. The phone system here will accept as short at 38 ms. ...Keith
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