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It is interesting to consider whether Hirsh's explanation of how the KAL007
navigation error could have been accidental stacks up against other experiences
with navigation errors in commercial aircraft. Hirsh claims that pilot
navigation error is the most likely explanation for the KAL incident.
In a magazine called Flight Crew (Fall 1979), Arnold Reiner wrote an article
called "Preventing Navigation Errors During Ocean Crossings," in which he
reports that such errors are common. He states:
"During the first six months of 1978, the International Air Transport
Association (IATA), reported that 49 North Atlantic flights were observed
off track in excess of 24 nautical miles. [A "gross navigation error" is
defined as a cross track error exceeding 24 miles and must be reported
and the pilot held accountable if observed.] ... The number of navigation
errors is assuredly greater than IATA statistics indicate, because at jet
cruising levels, VOR reception often exceeds the range of coastal radars,
thus permitting errant crews to regain track undetected.... During the first
six months of 1978, 16 flights were observed off track by more than 50
miles, while eight were spotted by coastal radars 100 miles or more off
track. The three greatest cross track errors were 180, 400, and 700 miles.
Averaging the number of observed gross navigation errors into the number
of days in the first half of 1978 yields one gross navigation error each
3.6 days."
I believe the KAL007 flight was 250 miles off track, which is within the bounds
of previous incidents that were assuredly accidental. I have no data to
determine whether navigation errors are more or less frequent or have a
different average size over the North Pacific as opposed to the North Atlantic.
The reasons involving pilot error given in the article for these incidents
(which is written as a warning to pilots of how to avoid such problems) are of
general interest with respect to decreasing risks of navigation errors and
include: multiple copies of computerized flight plans (e.g., where an enroute
reclearance had been entered on one copy but not the one used to extract
waypoint information; "present position" loading errors (e.g., many inertial or
Omega navigation systems will accept a present position that is substantially
distant from the aircraft's actual position without triggering a malfunction
code or other warning — Hirsh describes a relatively common practice by pilots
of downloading the inputs from one of the redundant computers to the other in
order to save time instead of redundant loading so that input errors can be
detected); erroneous loading of enroute waypoints (e.g., forgetting to load
tenths of minutes which can produce errors in tens of miles, forgetting to
advance the waypoint selector to the next waypoint and then loading a new
waypoint on top of one previously loaded; loading the wrong hemisphere; copying
waypoints onto a slip of paper first and then transposing the digits when
loading them); crews not monitoring present position or track frequently enough
to detect significant track deviations; autopilot problems (e.g., temporarily
disconnecting the autopilot to manually circumvent things like thunderstorms,
returning to track, and then forgetting to reengage the autopilot Nav mode).
Although Reiner's article is written a while ago, more recent stories I have
heard do not make it sound like these problems have since been eliminated.
Several of the possible explanations based on pilot error given by Hirsh are
very close to those noted above as having been responsible for similar
incidents (over a different ocean). Note that there was a recent incident
where a Continental plane was far off track over the Atlantic (and nearly hit
another plane). It does not appear that the Continental pilot was warned by
ground controllers of his wayward course.
[Reference: Seymour M. Hirsh, "The Target is Destroyed", 1986. PGN]
...... By the way,
one difficulty with trying to prove a conspiracy theory is that everyone on
the inside will deny it (which may thus seem credible), whether or not the
theory is true. So, you are ALWAYS AT RISK, period. PGN]
Really? Given what we've been talking about with whistle-blowers,
don't you think that the truth will leak out eventually? At least sometimes?
> ... But the prima facie conclusion, in the absence of such an
> explanation, is that considerations other than safety lead the authorities to
> blame the pilot, who can not speak for himself."
It could also be that fatal accidents are more often due to bad judgment
than non-fatal accidents. A high percentage of "fatals" are due to the
classic "continued VFR into IMC", which translates into challenging mother
nature by scud running (trying to sneak under the clouds) and losing the
challenge. Another major killer is what I call "gross stupidity": flying
while drunk or on drugs, buzzing your neighbor's house, low level
aerobatics, etc. A favorite adage of mine is as follows:
A superior pilot uses superior judgment to avoid using superior skill.
The worst pilot error is that one which gets you into a situation that
you can't fly out of. Maybe that's why more fatals are classified that way.
With respect to whether whistle-blowers do get the true story out, it is intriguing to consider the article by Eliot Marshall in the 22 April 1988 issue of SCIENCE — "Sverdlovsk: Anthrax Capital" — which reconsiders the April 1979 deaths in Sverdlovsk. The Soviet explanation involved tainted meat resulting from anthrax in the grain feed — although official Soviet secrecy certainly fueled the alternative theories. According to Marshall, ``Sverdlovsk's "mystery epidemic" of 1979 lost much of its mystery this month when a group of Soviet doctors came to the United States and met with scientists and reporters to give a firsthand account of what happened.'' They seem to have convinced their American counterparts that this explanation is indeed justified. However, Marshall quotes US Government sources that they still believe that a germ warfare experiment was involved. Thus, nine years later this case is still subject to uncertainty. [If another explanation is in fact the correct one, it has remained hidden — at least in unclassified circles.]
The US Congress has decided to convene hearings on the Stark incident and possible performance failures on computerized air-search radars.
The following appears in Darryl K. Taft, "Ada problems attributed to management, not language," GOVERNMENT COMPUTER NEWS, April 29, 1988 p. 55: "The Air Force has about 34 programs using Ada (Maj. Gen. Eric B.) Nelson said. Among those Nelson listed the Advanced Tactical Fighter, the small Intercontinental Ballistic Missile, the Milstar Satellite Mission Control System and the Command Center Processing Display System Replacement program. This last system being developed at (Electronic Systems Division (ESD) at Hanscom Air Force Base, Bedford Mass.) "accomplishes tactical warning and attack assessment for this nation," Nelson said. "Information on ballistic missile activity headed for the United States is sent to the leaders that make the big decisions. Based on that system this country decides whether to retaliate or not with our own nuclear forces," he said. - Jon Jacky, University of Washington
In RISKS DIGEST 6.74, PGOETZ (%LOYVAX.BITNET@CUNYVM.CUNY.EDU) comments:
| Somebody (I forget who) said,
|| To suggest that [write-protection] is 100% effective against a virus is to
|| overstate. Studies in biology suggest that a virus can thrive even in a
|| population in which a large percentage of the members are immune, if a there
|| is sufficient commerce among the non-immune members...
| Now, think about that for 2 or 3 seconds. If you turn on your machine,
| write-protect all the drives, run a virus unknowingly, and turn off your
| machine, you will NOT be infected by any possible virus.
I'm sorry, but you've misunderstood the statement. The virus thrives on
other people's unprotected disks, and runs in your unprotected memory,
attempting to "infect" your machine. If your machine is never
1) connected to another machine, or
2) running an unprotected disk
at the same time you use your normal disk (ie, unprotect it to do
some work), then you are safe. As you suggest.
But if there's a virus thriving nearby, it gets multiple tries to infect
your machine. You have to be **perfectly** consistent in protecting your
disk... Which tends to be difficult, unless you only use a few, pre-virus
programs on a standalone machine.
That's the point of the biological analogue.
David Collier-Brown, Geac Computers International Inc., 350 Steelcase Road,
Markham, Ontario, CANADA, L3R 1B3 (416) 475-0525 x3279
In RISKS-6.75, Fred Cohen begins: >In WHMurray's recent article to this bboard, I hear the same sounds >I have heard for years when attempting to discuss computer viruses >in an open forum. To speak of the disease is to invoke it. I admit to a certain amount of ambivalence on this issue. I believe that there is some risk of turning a vulnerability into a problem by talking about it too much. There is an undeniable phenomenon of copy-catism in society. Serial killers clump in time. So do teen suicides. There is also a tendency in our society to glorify the perpetrator of a crime and stigmatize the victim. The computer virus is different from the natural virus. The incidences of natural viruses are independent of what we say about them; the incidences of computer viruses are not. Now I make my living advising my clients on how to keep the computer safe, how to use it to protect its contents, and how to use it safely. I have a responsibility to them and to the public at large to understand the nature and size of this risk and to advise them accordingly. I also have a responsibility not to make the problem worse. I am caught in a double bind. We are collectively caught in a double bind. To deny the vulnerability may make the problem worse; to talk about it may make it worse. All that having been said, I come down on the side of truth telling. Collectively we have made that decision. We call the decision democracy. It is the decision that given the truth, collectively and most of the time, we will make the correct judgements, and at least collectively, behave in our own self interest. So far it seems to have worked even in the face of lies and liars ( of which viruses and their perpetrators may be among the more benign). Specifically, I support the right and responsibility of Fred Cohen to speak on this subject in public forums, however his opinions may agree or differ from my own. I oppose the kind of protective government, however well intentioned, that believes that bureaucrats have the responsibility or the ability, to protect us from our own errors. My perception of the truth is that, so far, we have a vulnerability rather than a problem. It is the threat to public confidence, rather than the threat to individual systems that is the issue. That the perpetrators of viruses are, at best experimenting, at worst playing, with powers beyond their ken or control. William Hugh Murray, Fellow, Information System Security, Ernst & Whinney 2000 National City Center Cleveland, Ohio 44114 21 Locust Avenue, Suite 2D, New Canaan, Connecticut 06840
> ... Imagine howbad the
> virus situation would be 20 years from now if we didn't find out about
> it now! We would have cars that could be infected, automated airliners
> waiting for an accident to happen, automated defense systems that
> could strike individuals deads directly from space, all existing in an
> environment without integrity.
Mmm, I would be inclined to consider this an example of the "Floppy Disk
Fallacy" ("my PC uses floppy disks, so obviously professional programmers
working on Crays must use floppy disks"). Not everyone is as casual about
security as the PC crowd. Although there are reasons to worry about the
safety of automated airliners and military systems, virus infection is
not plausibly one of them. In the aerospace-software community, I am told,
it is not unheard-of to verify the *binaries* manually to make sure they do
the right thing, because the compilers are not fully trusted. Although
these folks are thinking about programming errors rather than viruses, they
already care seriously about integrity. (Whether they care *enough*,
especially when commercial pressures get serious, is a different issue.)
People doing life-critical work probably should take some precautions.
But quivering in fear that MSDOS viruses will infect airliners is like
quivering in fear of hackers dialing up NORAD's computers and starting
World War III (when in fact NORAD's computers simply do not *have* dialup
access, because those people take security seriously and always have).
Henry Spencer @ U of Toronto Zoology {ihnp4,decvax,uunet!mnetor}!utzoo!henry
I am Fred Cohen, and I said it is undecidable whether or not a program is a virus, and that it is therefore impossible to detect all viruses and not detect any non-viruses in finite time with a computer that obeys the Turing model of computers. I did not say I could "detect" all viruses, but that if we decided that all programs were suspect, we could surely detect all viruses as being part of the suspect set. DO NOT SPREAD TRANSITIVE INTEGRITY CORRUPTION BY MISQUOTING OTHERS. - FC P.S. Write protecting hard disks only protects them from modification and thus infection over the period of their write protection. It does not prevent other infections that may occur to other parts of the world that can remember. - FC
By the way, Fred's message in RISKS-6.58 begins, "We can detect all viruses, but cannot decide whether or not a program is infected." Although I don't think either one of us misled anyone, I'm sorry for any confusion.
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