Readers of the references given in RISKS-7.52 to 54, and 7.70 to 71 (the New Yorker article by Ronnie Dugger, and reports by Roy Saltman; Lance Hoffman; Bob Wilcox and Erik Nilsson; and Howard Strauss and Jon Edwards) know that at least five past elections have been legally challenged on grounds of fraud. In all of these cases, the same company (BRC, formerly CES) provided the computing services. The lawsuit in Indiana is still in process. The latest item on the integrity of computers in elections relates to this year's Senate race in Florida. The New York Times (Saturday, 12 Nov 88, page 9) had an article by Andrew Rosenthal on suspicions of fraud arising from the results. At the end of the Election Day ballot counting, the Democrat Buddy Mackay was ahead. After the absentee ballots were counted, the Republican Connie Mack was declared the winner by 30,000 votes out of 4 million. However, in four counties for which BRC provided the computing services, the number of votes counted for Senator was 200,000 votes less than the votes for President (i.e., 20% less), while in other counties and in previous elections the two vote totals have generally been within 1% of each other. Remembering that these computer systems reportedly permit operators to turn off the audit trails and to change arbitrary memory locations on the fly, it seems natural to wonder whether anything fishy went on. I hope that our Florida readers will keep us informed of any further developments.
On the front page of the Sunday N.Y. Times, Peter Neumann raises a computer security related risk that I have not seen discussed before. At the end of his piece on describing the potential for viruses spreading, he states, "Do we know the econometric models of the country are correct, for example?" As a once and sometimes econometrician (who does microeconomic rather than macroeconomic work), I found this question to be one that is worth examining. The recent defeat of Michael Dukakis was probably caused in part by the well-publicized fiscal problems of Massachusetts. Did George Bush introduce a computer virus into the state's computers? Probably not. What happened was the effective federal tax rate for capital gains went up, causing investors to rush to take capital gains before the higher rates went into effect, temporarily inflating capital gains tax revenues at both federal and state levels. Because Massachusetts, as well as many other states, considered the increased tax collections as a normal part of revenue growth, they continued to project these gains into the future, when the higher tax rates would prevail. These projections were wrong, and we know what happened. This risk, however, has nothing to do with viruses, it has to do with the environment in which econometric models are created and used. It should be noted that the econometric modeling industry has been shrinking for several years--many banks have eliminated their in-house forecasting group and subscriptions to outside forecasters are down. The federal government has slashed the funds available for data collection and forecasting activities. The real risk from traditional computer-based econometric forecasting comes from the lack of new money and talent flowing into the field that keeps the industry from advancing technologically. (If you don't believe me, call a venture capitalist and tell him you'd like to start an econometric forecasting firm.) Conceptual bugs, such as described above, and programming errors are problems that are likely to swamp viruses as a source of error. Should we worry about all this. No. First, to the extent the such models are used, humans are an important part of the loop. "Fudge factors" are built into every model and unreasonable projections are not used--the model is rerun with new fudge factors. No doubt, just the way programming and conceptual bugs have been "fudged over," a virus would be, too. Second, for most business applications there are much better sources of economic forecasts than large econometric models, and they are essentially free. For example, I can safely state that a reasonable projection of crude oil prices is that they will remain stable over the next year, decreasing a bit over the winter and going back up in summer. Not only that, you can expect long-term interest rates to rise by about 0.5% over the next two years. Did I use a Ouija board or consult my local oracle? No, I just looked up the futures prices in the Wall Street Journal. These are market-generated predictions that are based on the aggregate information contained by the marketplace. True, they do not have pinpoint accuracy, but they tend to perform quite well on average. As many companies and banks have concluded, who needs big, expensive econometric models? Maybe, just maybe, the marketplace is capable of taking care of some risks, which in this case has nothing to do with viruses, by itself. Ross Miller Phone: (617) 868-1135 Boston University Internet: firstname.lastname@example.org [The Times piece consisted of sentences randomly culled from a discursive discussion. The econometric sentence was totally out of context -- relating to integrity and correctness problems, not just worm/viruses, but I'm glad you picked up on it! Thanks. PGN]
Report on the IFAC Symposium on Safety of Computer Control Systems (SAFECOMP '88) Safety Related Computers in an Expanding Market November 9-11, 1988 — Fulda, FRG (West Germany) This message is a set of personal observations on the Symposium on Safety of Computer Control Systems, originated and run by the members of EWICS TC-7 with support from IFAC and IFIPS. Prior to this meeting, SAFECOMP was held every three years. This meeting was held two years after its predecessor (SAFECOMP '86 in Sarlat, France) and henceforth is planned to be an annual event (SAFECOMP '89 will be held in Vienna, Austria on September 5-7, 1989). EWICS TC-7 (Abstracted from a talk by J. M. A. Rata): The European Workshop on Industrial Computer Systems is a group originally started as "Perdue Europe", a series of workshops held in Europe by Purdue University, it is now sponsored by the European Economic Community. Almost all European nations have representatives in EWICS, with the exceptions being Spain, Portugal and Greece. The majority of members come from France, the United Kingdom and West Germany. TC-7 is the Technical Committee on Reliability, Safety and Security. It's an active group, with a series of technical reports and "Pre-standard" guidelines on computer safety and reliability published at frequent intervals. The current Chair of TC-7 is J. M. A. Rata. The Workshop: Over the two and a half days of the symposium, a total of 26 presentations were made. I'm not going to summarize all of the talks, but will give a description of those I found most interesting. The Symposium proceedings are available from Pergammon Press (Edited by W. D. Ehrenberger, ISBN 0-08-036389), but there were 6 talks given at the symposium that were not part of the proceedings - 4 of the papers were distributed on site, 1 was a report of work in progress, and the last was Dr. Rata's description of TC-7. NOTE: the following are summaries of my notes on the presentations I personally found most interesting. I profoundly regret any inaccuracies, and no criticism should be implied on the papers omitted from this report. [My personal comments are in square brackets - TJS] Dahll, G., Mainka, U. and J. Maertz*, "Tools for the Standardised Software Safety Assessment (The SOSAT Project)" This was a description of an environment to aid the licensor of safety-related code. It starts with the final object code of the application to be assessed. This is disassembled and instrumented for comparison with the specification. There are also capabilities for analyzing the disassembled code with commercial tools (e.g., SPADE — See O'Neill's talk below). SOSAT itself supports 4 types of analysis: Static Analysis, including structure, path and data flow analysis; White-box test data generation; Symbolic Execution; and Real-time timing analysis. The latter was the subject of a presentation by G. Rabe at SAFECOMP '88. It's basically a sophisticated profiler that interfaces directly to the target hardware. [SOSAT clearly has much development ahead, but there seems to be a good start in considering the sort of tools that the licensing examiner may find useful in evaluating safety-related software.] Bergerand, J.L. and E. Pilaud, "SAGA - A Software Development Environment for Dependability Automatic Controls" The French cousin of SOSAT is SAGA. This environment is focused more on the development of the code than the licensing. It is basically intended to improve the designs (by supporting design-level analyses) and to support reuse of software modules (with the theory that the more a module is re-used, the better it gets). SAGA has been used to support the development of nuclear power plant control code. It doesn't seem to improve productivity, but the quality of the resultant code seems to be improved. Fedra, K., "Information and Decision Support Systems for Risk Analysis" This was a report on a tool to support qualitative risk assessment and disaster planning. It provides a graphic interface to simulate disastrous events and link to databases on related risks, along with geology, geography, weather and population demographics of the region in question. It's geared for non-expert users to support industrial safety decisions. A trial system has been used in the People's Republic of China. The system also has an expert system to support hazard management techniques and support for safety analysis tools like fault-tree analysis. [This was without doubt the prettiest presentation of the symposium, with impressive color graphics showing simulations of Chernobyl, ground-water contamination and population evacuation. However, there were a lot of questions at the symposium about the fidelity of the underlying models used. The basic defense by Dr. Fedra was that the tool does better than the current techniques, supporting safely smaller safety margins. I'm not entirely sure I believe that, given the oft-cite propensity of non-expert users to trust computers too much.] Taylor, J.R. "Reducing the Risks from Systems Documentation Errors" The motivation for this work was a case where inaccurate documentation for a circuit board that was part of the firing control system resulted in a faulty installation that caused a gun turret on a Danish naval vessel to over-revolve and fire at its captain. A subsequent study found that errors in documentation of safety-related subsystems are quite frequent. To reduce these errors, Taylor created the ANNADOC system. The documents are translated by the users into a simplified technical English, which is in turn translated by the system into a set of finite state machines. The FSMs are used to simulate the system so that the documented behavior may be compared with the specified or actual behavior. [This talk was interesting because of a rarely-considered aspect of safety, namely the affect of the documentation. A member of the audience cited an additional example, a case where incorrect wiring diagrams (known to be incorrect by the management involved and stamped "DO NOT USE", but not corrected) were used in the maintenance of a nuclear reactor. The erroneous wiring caused a reactor trip.] Panel Discussion: "Is probabilistic thinking reasonable in software safety applications?" The Proponents of probabilistic thinking cited studies that humans are not deterministic in their behavior, and the desire to be able to use models similar to those used in hardware. The Opponents countered by saying that we really don't have much basis for supporting probabilistic software reliability statements — if a failure is found during software safety assessment, any reasonable licensing authority will require modification of the software to prevent that failure. The favored approach for the opponents seemed to by careful development and rigorous analysis of the software. A poll of the audience after the discussion showed that a large majority didn't feel that probabilistic thinking was reasonable for software. Bloomfield, R.E. and P.K.D. Froome, "The Assessment and Licensing of Safety Related Software" [This is a presentation of an extensive tech report "Licensing Issues Associated with the Use of Computers in the Nuclear Industry", R.E. Bloomfield and W.D. Ehrenberger, Tech Report EUR11147en, Commission of the European Communities, Nuclear Science and Technology, 1988. ISBN 92-825-8005-9. Lots of interesting summaries of the use of computers in various nations for nuclear and safety-related applications. It has a stated purchase price of $24.50 from the Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, L-2985 Luxembourg] Certification is a formal agreement of the fitness of a system to a specific purpose. There is some transfer of responsibility involved in the certification process, morally if not legally. Certification is normally a large process, with much delegation and summarization. There may be pressures on the certification team to avoid articulating concerns (political and social pressure), to automatically accept subsystems that were generated in response to the certification teams comments, and to ignore a series of small problems that collectively destroy the certifiers confidence in the system. With respect to software, there are several persistent questions: + What is the acceptance of risk among the populace and how do the certifiers acknowledge that? + How does risk analysis reflect value systems? + What are the technological limits? + What role should numbers play in certification? If the probabilities are dominated by common-mode or human-error effects, how should they be evaluated? + Should individuals and institutions need to be certified, as well as systems? Recent work (especially the UK Defense standard that will be published next year) focuses on formal analysis approaches: Z, VDM, HOL, CSS, CSP and use of temporal logics. [Much here that will be familiar to regular RISKS readers, but useful to see someone from the licensing side articulating these concerns. One member in the audience raised the issue of how one can recognize, or measure, good software engineering practice.] O'Neill, I.M., Summers, P.G., Clutterbuck, D.L., and P.F. Farrow "The Formal Verification of Safety-Critical Assembly Code" A report of a project at Rolls-Royce to certify jet aircraft control code using SPADE. The assembly code was mechanically translated into FDL for analysis, with annotation of proof obligations automatically inserted during the translation. A flow analysis of the FDL code raised queries that were resolved by the implementation team before the proof was conducted. Pre and Post-conditions were derived from module "fact sheets" and manually inserted into the FDL code. The generation of further annotations for the proof was done automatically, but the proof itself involved substantial human interaction. Approximately 100 modules were proven. Total correctness was not proven for all modules, but only about 12 involved loops at all, and the certification team assured themselves that the loops had a fixed limit on the iterations. Each module was verified individually, with no consideration of the inter-modular data flow. Concluding Session (W. Ehrenberger): A poll of the attendees of the symposium shows concern for the following problems: + Specification of Systems and tools to support this + Limits of understanding of the role of software in Safety + Man/Machine interface problems + Risk reducing tools (How do we qualify the results) + Diverging Technology (General approaches seem largely flawed) + Reluctance of Industry to use new techniques + Robust metrics and measurement (and how it relates to political acceptance of risk) + Identification of Critical system components and critical failures [Ehrenberger noted that many of these concerns were unchanged since the first SAFECOMP in 1979 — a recognition that we have a long way to go. It seemed to me that this was a fair summation of the entire symposium. Some approaches look promising, but we have a long way to go to really address the problems. The papers were strong in recognizing the issues, but there was a large gap between the acknowledged problems and the proposed solutions.] *Note: Umlauts are interpreted by using the "following e" convention. Thus, a-umlaut is written as ae, etc.
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