neumann@csl.sri.com
Date: Wed, 8 Aug 2018 10:35:20 -0700
Putin is afraid of one thing. Make him think it could happen.
Michael Morell, *The Washington Post*, 7 Aug 2018
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/putin-is-afraid-of-one-thing-make-him-think-it-could-happen/2018/08/07/edbe08b4-998b-11e8-b60b-1c897f17e185_story.html%3Futm_term%3D.5dc2e012e179%26wpisrc%3Dnl_most%26wpmm%3D1
Facebook revealed on 31 Jul 2018 that it had discovered a 17-month-long influence campaign sow political divisiveness on its network, an effort that bore the hallmarks of the Kremlin-connected Internet Research Agency. Two days later at the White House, the nation's top national security officials said Russia is conducting a pervasive campaign to weaken our democracy and influence this year's midterm elections. Taken together, these announcements leave no doubt that Russian President Vladimir Putin's political assault on the United States continues unabated.
The most important question the Trump administration and Congress should be
asking is: How can we make Putin stop? Finding the answer is essential
because what Washington has done so far -- some improvements in defending
against these attacks, along with a mixture of targeted sanctions against
Russia, the indictment of Russian officials and organizations as well as the
expulsion of Russian intelligence officers from the United States -- has not
worked.
Stopping Putin is vital, not just as a matter of protecting American
democracy from Russian interference but also because we must signal a
stronger deterrence to other adversaries, such as China, Iran and North
Korea. Potential aggressors must be shown they will pay a price if they
attack. With better resources than Russia for trying to undermine our
democracy, China, in particular, needs to know that the United States would
respond by imposing a heavy cost.
The U.S. answer to Russia, so far, has been ineffective because Washington
has targeted only the entities and individuals actually involved in the
Russian information operations. Since the 2016 election, the United States,
at various times, has imposed sanctions on at least 10 Russian organizations
some more than once, and at least 23 specific individuals the sanctions'
targeting has had little impact on the Russian economy overall, the
political effect on Putin has been minor.
Here is what the United States needs to do. In terms of self-defense, it
must secure the nation's elections system, especially the software that
holds data on registered voters. Every vote should be tallied on a backup
paper ballot that could be used to verify election results, if
necessary. New rules and better enforcement are needed to keep foreign money
out of U.S. elections. The federal government should work with individual
campaigns to fortify the security of the technology and networks they
use. Finally, better coordination across the government is needed to protect
U.S. elections, which would probably best be achieved by creating a Hybrid
Threats Center similar to the National Counterterrorism Center.
Intelligence officials outline threats to midterm elections
FBI Director Christopher Wray and Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen
Nielsen on 2 Aug 2018 discussed the disinformation attempts on the 2018
elections. (Reuters)
There are several bills in Congress, all with support on both sides of the aisle, that would institute most of these changes and pay for them, but the legislation is frozen by the partisanship this issue stirs.
As for imposing costs on those who attack the United States: Fully implement
sanctions already on the books. That is still not happening. But then move
beyond targeted sanctions to broad-based sanctions that are designed to hurt
the Russian economy -- just as the Obama administration's sanctions against
Iran were designed to do, as are the Trump administration's. Make it clear
to Putin that we would drop the sanctions when he stopped interfering in the
democratic institutions of the United States and its allies, some of which
are also under siege.
What would such sanctions look like? A Senate bill introduced on 2 Aug 2018,
again with sponsors from both parties, is a good start: Prohibit any
transaction related to Russian energy projects and bar the purchase of new
Russian sovereign debt. Washington should encourage its allies to join in
these efforts.
Putin is afraid of one thing. He is afraid that one day the Russian middle
class will finally rebel against his regime and rush into the streets
demanding change. It happened in Tunis, Cairo and other Middle Eastern and
North African cities between 2010 and 2012, and it happened most alarmingly,
from Putin's perspective, four years ago in Kiev when Ukrainians threw out a
government beholden to Moscow. Sanctions that bite at the heart of the
Russian economy -- sanctions that increase the risk that Russia's middle
class will become restive -- will get Putin's attention.
The leaders that the United States has chosen, and the security experts they
have appointed and confirmed, are aware of the threat. A failure to defend
the nation as well as possible, and failure to impose severe costs on those
attacking our democracy, would be seen by history as a major abdication of
responsibility. The statements from intelligence officials at the White
House last week were an excellent first step. More steps, and stronger ones,
are urgently needed.
Michael Morell, a career intelligence officer, served as the deputy
director of the Central Intelligence Agency from 2010 to 2013; during that
period, he served twice as acting CIA director. He is the host of the
Intelligence Matters podcast.
[Edited for RISKS. The original has a slew of subtended URLs. PGN]